International Motors’ orders for Q4 totaled 13,842 vehicles, of which 11,175 were trucks, with 10,167 of those in the U.S. and Canada. (International Motors)
An anticipated jump in Class 8 truck sales ahead of the arrival of stricter emissions standards might not start until 2026, the CEO of the parent company of International Motors said March 10.
Traton Group CEO Christian Levin tempered expectations of the predicted “pre-buy” demand jolt in the second half of 2025 during the German truck and bus maker’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rules currently on the books will require model year 2027 heavy-duty trucks to emit no more than 0.035 gram of nitrogen oxides per horsepower hour.
Analysts and truck makers warn the advancements required to achieve such numbers could add as much as $20,000 to $30,000 to the sticker price of new tractors, and as a result, carriers were expected to ramp up purchasing of model year 2025 and 2026 trucks.
However, Levin is not so optimistic. “We expect the North American truck market to remain weak. Depending on the magnitude of the expected EPA 2027 pre-buy and subject to future geopolitical developments in the U.S., demand should develop somewhere in the range of zero to minus 10%,” he said.
“Also in North America, we see back-end loaded development [in 2025 demand], where we expect the pre-buy, if there will be a pre-buy, to kick in toward the second half of 2025,” he noted during initial remarks on the call.
Once the question-and-answer segment of the call began, however, Levin and Traton Chief Financial Officer Michael Jackstein revealed to analysts that International Motors orders were soft in Q4, and there was a strong likelihood this would remain the case.
“The order intake has been rather slow. We have a bit of an order book, and we have a bit longer lead times in the U.S.,” Levin said. “Hence, we don’t need to change anything now, we run on the production rates we are running on, but … I think it has never been more difficult to make an outlook for the North American total market than it is today.
“The big fleets are a little bit more hesitant to place orders with us because they want to see more clarity, not because of EPA 2027, but because they want to see more clarity about the U.S. economy. So the main reason we saw lower order intake in the fourth quarter was that the fleets said ‘we will wait.’ ”
Levin also suggested that the percentage of International truck buyers that are larger fleets is higher than that of the company’s peers, which is why its orders were down so much.
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In Q4, International’s orders totaled 13,842 vehicles, of which 11,175 were trucks, with 10,167 of those in the U.S. and Canada. In the year-ago period, International’s orders totaled 23,393 vehicles, of which 20,200 were trucks.
“It seems right now, and that’s why I said, ‘if there is a pre-buy in 2025,’ it seems that [the pre-buy] — given the complete insecurity of the situation — could very well be pushed into 2026, and then there is no real pre-buy this year, rather than 2026,” said Levin.
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Industrywide North American medium- and heavy-duty truck sales are expected to be flat to 10% lower at between 384,000 trucks to 427,000 trucks, according to Traton. The company’s forecast encompasses Classes 6-8 sales in the U.S. and Canada and Classes 4-8 in Mexico.
Levin said during the analyst call that heavy-duty truck sales in North America were expected to total 270,000 to 300,000 in 2025.
International sold 23,800 trucks and buses in Q4, a 15% rise compared with 20,700 vehicles in the same period a year earlier.
Traton said in January that sales at its North American unit rose in 2024 on the back of strength in the medium-duty truck market and increased bus purchases.
International, known as Navistar until a rebranding in September, is the parent company of school and commercial bus manufacturer IC Bus.
A large part of the truck sales increase was the result of the Euro VI truck pre-buy effect in Mexico, the company added in a presentation accompanying the Q4 results.
Lisle, Ill.-based International sold 90,600 vehicles in the 12 months that ended Dec. 31, up 2% compared with 88,900 in the year-earlier period.
Overall, Traton sold 334,200 vehicles in 2024, a 1% year-on-year decrease from 338,200 in 2023.
Traton sold 88,800 vehicles in Q4, almost unchanged from the prior-year period’s 88,700.
Persistently weak sales in Europe hurt Traton’s overall numbers, especially figures at the Munich-based company’s MAN Truck & Bus division.
Overall incoming orders across the group totaled 263,575 vehicles in 2024, little changed from 264,798 vehicles in 2023. Of those orders, 208,519 were trucks, down 1% from 210,617 in 2023.
Traton posted a profit of $4.75 billion in 2024, compared with $4.37 billion in 2023. In the most recent quarter, the company posted a profit of $1.217 billion, compared with $1.197 billion in the year-ago period. Traton reports earnings in euros; all currency conversions were correct as of March 10.
