A U.S. asset management firm recently issued a dire warning for the trucking and retail sectors as tariffs begin to impact the global supply chain.

Apollo Global Management economists shared the April 2025 report “How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs?” looking ahead to the expected impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs on the American economy in the months to come.

The report broadly predicts supply chain disruptions, reduced consumer confidence, and a likely economic recession by the summer as a result of tariffs placed on U.S. trading partners, including a 145% tariff on China.

Of particular note for the trucking industry, the report laid out the following timeline for the impact of tariffs on the U.S. supply chain that predicts empty shelves and layoffs:

April 2: Liberation day tariffs. Container departures from China to the U.S. slowing rapidly.

Twenty to forty days container ship transit time.

Early May/Mid May: Container ships to U.S. ports come to a stop.

One to ten days truck/rail transit time to cities.

Mid May/Late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt.

Empty shelves and companies respond to lower sales.

Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industry.

Summer 2025: Recession.

Apollo Global Management also noted that companies are revising earning expectations downward and increasing inventory before tariffs take effect.