Even before steel and aluminum tariffs were imposed, demand in 2025 was weaker than expected, with ACT Research analysts cutting their Class 8 demand forecast by about 8%. (Aziz Shamuratov/Getty Images)
Truck manufacturers are set to raise the prices of new Class 8 tractors as early as May as a result of tariffs on U.S. imports, with further hikes likely on the way.
Volvo Trucks North America and Mack Trucks warned customers of May price hikes for new vehicles in March after the Trump administration slapped a 25% tariff on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum, a spokesman for parent company Volvo Group told Transport Topics.
Any additional costs the two truck makers incur as a result of the raw material and other recently introduced tariffs will also be passed on to customers, the spokesman said, although he declined to say how big the initial price hikes would be.
The spokesman also declined to say how much of the steel and aluminum VTNA and Mack use for building trucks in the U.S. was imported.
VTNA currently builds trucks at the New River Valley plant in Dublin, Va. — including the recently redesigned VNR regional haul tractor and flagship VNL on-highway tractor — while engines, transmissions and axles are built in Hagerstown, Md.
Volvo’s new VNR on display at the 2025 Technology & Maintenance Council Annual Meeting. (John Sommers II for Transport Topics)
Mack powertrains are also manufactured at the Hagerstown facility, while longhaul cab assembly takes place at the Lehigh Valley Operations in Macungie, Pa. Mack’s medium-duty trucks are assembled at the Roanoke Valley plant in Salem, Va.
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Even before the tariffs were imposed, demand in 2025 was weaker than expected, with analysts at ACT Research cutting their Class 8 demand forecast by about 8% to 288,800 from 316,500 tractors and trucks in February, reflecting growing apprehension about the prospects for the U.S. economy.
Daimler Truck North America reported a 16% year-over-year slide in sales in the first quarter of 2025 on April 8, while International Motors revealed a matching decline a day later.
DTNA — parent company of Class 8 brands Freightliner and Western Star — declined to comment on any impact of the raw material tariffs and March 26 reciprocal penalties on imports for its truck prices.
Kenworth also declined to comment. A spokeswoman told TT the Paccar unit was still in the process of analyzing the details of the announcements. Sister company Peterbilt declined to comment, too.
President Donald Trump announced plans Feb. 10 to raise tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum to 25% from March 12. Imports from some countries already had a 10% tariff from 2018 actions during his first term. Any exemptions from the earlier tariffs were nixed, including for allies.
On March 4, matching 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico — the largest trading partners of U.S. and indispensable cogs of the intertwined North American commercial vehicle supply chain — went into effect.
Two days later, the White House backtracked, rescinding tariffs for Canadian and Mexican products that complied with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which seemed to include trucks and their components. Top executives remained confused and frustrated.
“It’s still a little bit uncertain how the tariff system [for Mexico] would work,” said Daimler Truck CEO Karin Radstrom.
“For instance … we are building engines in Detroit that we are then sending across the border to Mexico, putting them into the truck and sending the truck back to the U.S.,” the top executive at the world’s largest truck maker said March 14 during the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.
The Trump administration also promised at least 10% tariffs on all imports outside the USMCA agreement, with many nations’ exports subject to much higher impositions, especially China’s.
Trump appears in the Rose Garden April 2 to sign reciprocal tariffs into effect. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg News)
“The tariffs announced [March 26] have potential to depress freight volumes and increase equipment costs for our industry. We continue to express these concerns directly to administration officials,” warned American Trucking Associations President Chris Spear after the announcement.
Trump and Cabinet officials traded barbs and threats with global counterparts in the days before and after the introduction of the minimum 10% tariffs. However, the White House backed down, pausing the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on April 9.
Stock markets tumbled as tumult over the tariffs further rocked confidence in the U.S. economy’s prospects. Even one-time Trump allies blasted the impact.
“The Trump Tariff Tax is the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history. These tariffs are nearly 10x the size of those imposed during the Trump-Pence Administration and will cost American families over $3,500 per year,” Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president in his first term, wrote on X.
I am grateful that President Trump has committed to embracing a pause on many of the broad-based tariffs that were imposed on our trading partners around the world. When America trades with allies, it’s a win for the American people. Our goal should be free trade with free…
— Mike Pence (@Mike_Pence) April 9, 2025
Even with the rollbacks and exemptions, analysts still expect truck prices to increase and demand to sag further due to the growing economic uncertainty.
“I cannot stress enough the amount of disarray this is causing,” said FTR Transportation Intelligence Chairman of the Board Eric Starks.
The aluminum and steel tariffs alone are likely to lead to a 4% to 6% increase in Class 8 truck costs, with Classes 4 to 7 expected to see a 4% to 5% price hike, according to FTR calculations.
March Class 8 orders totaled around 15,700 vehicles, a 14% month-on-month decrease and a 22% year-on-year slump. Orders in the first quarter of 2025 fell 25% year over year, according to FTR data.
The weaker numbers are due to economic indicators, a stagnant freight market, regulatory uncertainty and tariff uncertainty, among other things, FTR Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles Dan Moyer told TT, adding: “Fleets are taking a more cautious approach.”
“Outside of COVID, we’ve never had this degree of uncertainty in the industry,” said ACT Vice President Steve Tam.
That said, analysts see a more profound impact on the wider economy than directly on demand for tractors.
FTR’s Starks said equity market vacillations could often be disregarded when it comes to the impact on commercial vehicle demand, but the current situation resembles the 2008-2009 subprime debt crisis-induced “Great Recession,” when stock market weakness was an indicator of bigger problems.
“This is feeling very similar from my perspective,” he warned, adding that he expects the U.S. to move into a recession.
“Every day that passes, every news cycle that passes, we see changes and more uncertainty,” added ACT’s Tam.
Other analysts likened the consequences of the 2025 Trump tariffs to those of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. The act aimed to protect American farmers and businesses from foreign competition, but instead multiplied the hardships of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world.
