“We could see a drop off in volume starting as early as the month of May,” Seroka said. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg News)
Imports at the busiest U.S. port should start declining as soon as May and are set to fall sharply in the second half of the year as punitive tariffs start to weigh on demand for foreign goods.
“We could see a drop off in volume starting as early as the month of May,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said April 11 during a call with journalists. He added that “at the very least,” the gateway will see a 10% drop in imports in the second half of the year.
Last month, loaded imports at the Port of L.A. came in at some 385,500 twenty-foot container equivalent units, or TEUs. That represented a 1.6% increase from the year before as importers rushed to boost inventories before more punitive tariffs came into effect, Seroka said.
About 40% of the imports that enter the U.S. via the Port of L.A. hail from China, and as of this week those items began facing 145% tariffs. And while Trump on April 9 announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs on other countries — less than 24 hours after they came into effect — imports from most countries are now subject to at least 10% duties, on top of additional levies on specific goods like steel and aluminum.
The port registered about 123,000 TEUs of loaded exports, a 15% drop from a year ago. The pullback is evidence of the growing pressure facing agricultural and manufacturing exporters as counter-tariffs — including 125% levies imposed by China — start to take effect.
“I’ll continue my calls in the evening Pacific Time with my friends back in Asia to see what bookings are looking like,” Seroka said. “But buckle up, this is going to get really bumpy for us.”
